Social media can be a hive of misinformation.

1/ Do they have an agenda?

2/ If they cite ‘‘facts’’ can these be verified?

3/ If they claim truths without evidence, is it just an opinion stated?

Critical thinking skills matter.

When looking at reports on a fringe subject or belief, it’s easy and exciting to jump to conclusions when confronted with the intriguing word, ‘unknown’. For example, 90% of UFO cases in the borough of Castle Point in 1973 were investigated and explained away, whilst 10% were classified as ‘Unknown’.

In the scientific world, ‘unknown’ actually means that there is not enough reliable data to draw meaningful conclusions. Frustratingly, this lack of data on many famous fringe phenomenon means that, as time marches on, there tends to be a lot of unfounded speculation that can never be fully resolved to everyone’s satisfaction.

A completely closed-minded cynic would use the label of ‘unknown’ to dismiss any capacity for belief. In contrast, a dogmatic believer would see the same term as evidence that supports their conviction. However, this is an alternative way of looking at it.

In my own experience of analysing laboratory data, results cannot be deemed credible without evidence of certain known parameters. For instance, these may include: a test method, calibration records of equipment, documented expertise of the analyst, etc. Without these kinds of minimum checks on the validity of the data, one is forced to discard the results, and report it as ‘unknown’.

In my opinion, remaining open-minded to analysis of any data is a good first step in drawing a conclusion. If there is insufficient evidence, this does not provide grounds to dismiss a phenomenon. It merely means we would have to classify it as unknown.

Mike H

We often see the word theory used in the media when a hypothesis or even an educated guess would be a much more accurate description. To clarify, a hypothesis and a theory can be defined as:

Hypothesis  – A hypothesis is an idea which is suggested as a possible explanation for a particular situation or condition, but which has not yet been proven to be correct.  A scientific hypothesis has to be something possible to be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation.

Theory – In lay terms, a theory is a formal idea or set of ideas that is intended to explain something. Whereas, a scientific theory is an explanation of some aspect of the natural world that has been substantiated through repeated experiments or testing.

The word theory is grossly overused in everyday conversation, but especially in the media. The danger in assigning the word ‘theory’ is that it is misleading, as it appears to add credibility to potentially false or unsubstantiated ideas.

Now don’t get me wrong, I love to speculate on various fringe ideas with my buddies over a bourbon or two because it’s fun! Who knows, maybe one day that wild idea becomes an educated guess which becomes a hypothesis which becomes a theory which becomes a…

Mike H